For the past two decades, the H-1B lottery and employment-based green cards have formed the twin pillars of skilled immigration to America. That architecture is now crumbling.

 

As EB-2 NIW approval rates plummet from 95% to 54%, EB-1A approvals slide to 67% and new H-1B petitions face a $100,000 fee, one visa category has (so far) weathered the storm remarkably well: the O visa, which has maintained a +94% approval rate even as demand has surged.

 

This post analyzes data and tracks trends in EB-1A and EB-2 NIW adjudications, situating that information among other policy changes, all of which are pushing many to consider O-1.

 

In another recent GWL analysis we looked at H-1B policy changes as a specific driver for considering O-1, and here we take a look at additional factors pushing applicants over to O-1. In doing so we inevitably run up against questions and speculations: with additional applications, will O-1 be next to see changes in adjudication standards (formally) or in agency approach (informally)? Will more RFE’s be issued, and will processing times lengthen?

 

While it is too soon to know for sure, at GWL we are anticipating some changes, and are preparing clients and strengthening petitions accordingly.

 

Understanding the O Visa Category

The O nonimmigrant visa category covers a wide range of individuals who exhibit extraordinary ability in the sciences, arts, education, business or athletics, as well as those with a record of extraordinary achievement in the motion picture or television industry.

Given this broad range, the O visa category is typically broken down into distinct subcategories:

• O-1A for individuals with an extraordinary ability in the sciences, education, business or athletics (not including the arts, motion pictures or television industry);
• O-1B covers individuals with an extraordinary ability in the arts or with a record of extraordinary achievement in the motion picture or television industry.

 

There are two further subcategories of O visa:

• O-2 covers individuals who will accompany an O-1 artist or athlete to assist in a specific event or performance;
• O-3 covers individuals who are the spouse or children of O-1/O-2 visa holders.
  

 

Behind The O Visa’s Steady Approval Rate

 

While the broader immigration landscape has been subject to tumultuous ebbs and flows, O visa petitions have maintained a remarkably stable approval trajectory. The most recent USCIS data reveals a 94.6% approval rate for Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24), and this strong performance has continued into FY25 despite mounting pressures elsewhere across the immigration system.

 

 

The numbers tell a compelling story, and we can gain a more detailed glimpse into O-1A trends in a USCIS factsheet published in 2023, where we see that receipts grew significantly between FY18 and FY2023. Despite O-1A receipts nearly doubling in this period, O-1A petitioners maintained a +90% approval rate throughout.

 

While more recent USCIS reporting does not disaggregate among O-1A and O-1B petitions, their combined approval rate in FY24 was 94% and has held steadily in the +90% range throughout FY25’s most recent Q3 reporting.

 

 

This resilience can likely be attributed to a few different factors. Unlike the EB-2 NIW category, where petition receipts nearly quintupled from 8,320 in FY18 to 39,810 in FY23, O visa applications have grown in a more measured trajectory. Whereas the intense growth rate of EB-2 NIW petitions significantly overwhelmed USCIS’ adjudication capacities and has likely led to reactive adjudication policies, O visa receipts’ relative stability (not once exceeding 30,000 applications) has prevented the kind of alarm bells that lead to ‘corrective’ adjudication.

 

 

 

The O visa’s criteria structure may also explain much of this stability. The fact that the O visa has not typically been depicted as a common route to permanent residence has likely helped protect the category from the backlog-induced pressure to “give it a try,” something the EB-1A/EB-2 NIW has seen. 

 

Unlike the H-1B lottery, where chance determines success or the increasingly subjective “national interest” standard of EB-2 NIW, O visa criteria are particularly clear and objective: extraordinary ability demonstrated through sustained national or international acclaim. This clarity benefits both petitioners, who can better understand the strength of their profile, and adjudicators, who have clearer benchmarks for approval.

 

USCIS has increased Request for Evidence (RFEs) issuance across most categories, but O visa petitions have faced comparatively low RFE rates (~19%) in comparison to EB-1A and EB-2 NIW, where practitioners report RFE rates in the 50-60% range.

 

Collapsing Alternatives: Why O Visas are on the Rise

The EB-1A/EB-2 NIW Crunch

The extraordinary ability and national interest waiver green card categories, once the gold standard for skilled immigration, are experiencing an unprecedented crisis of both confidence and capacity. The numbers help to illustrate this systemic breakdown, with the EB-2 NIW category offering the most dramatic example.

 

From a stable approval rate hovering above 95% for most of FY22, NIW approvals have plummeted to just 54% by the third quarter of FY25: a precipitous 41-percentage-point decline. The sheer volume of applications, exploding under Biden era expansions of NIW criteria, tells part of the story, contributing to a mounting processing backlog.

 

 

The backlog has ballooned, as rising RFE rates contribute at a minimum 2-3 months to processing time, creating a cascade of delays that can stretch the total adjudication timeline to beyond a year.

 

The EB-1A category, while faring better, shows troubling signs of being on a similar trajectory. After maintaining approval rates in the 70% range through FY23 and FY24, the rate has declined to 67% in Q3 FY25 (and third-party reports point to an even more serious dip to be reported in the fiscal year’s final quarter). Perhaps more concerning is the mounting EB-1A backlog, surging nearly 28% alone between FY24-Q4 and FY25-Q1.

 

 

The category is experiencing the same pressures that devastated NIW approval rates, just on a delayed timeline. Rising RFE rates are also exposing shifting adjudication standards: more and more, petitioners seem to be chasing a moving target.

 

At GWL, we forecast that the EB-1A and EB-2 NIW “crunch” will continue to be exacerbated through the last quarter of FY25 and we will be closely watching for the contents of DHS’ proposed rule on eligibility criteria for these two categories to be published, likely this January.

 

This crisis in the EB categories makes the O visa’s stability even more remarkable. While EB-1A and EB-2 NIW petitioners face months of uncertainty with declining odds of success, O visa applicants enjoy 94% approval rates with relatively predictable processing times: currently, 80% of O petitions are being processed within 7.5 months under standard processing, and 15 business day premium processing is an option.

 

The H-1B Revolution

The H-1B program, a longtime workhorse of skilled immigration with 85,000 annual slots, is undergoing the most radical transformation since its inception with changes that seek to fundamentally alter who can access America’s erstwhile primary work visa.

 

The September 2025 announcement of a $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions sent shockwaves through the immigration community. While the administration has since clarified that this applies only to new petitions filed after September 21, 2025, for beneficiaries outside the United States, the message is unmistakable: the era of accessible H-1B visas is over. This fee alone exceeds the median annual salary for many entry-level positions, effectively pricing out startups and smaller companies from the H-1B market entirely and diminishing opportunities for new and even mid-career professionals from benefitting from the lottery.

 

More transformative still is the proposed shift from random lottery to wage-based selection, which may possibly already take effect for the March 2026 filing season. Under this system, registrations would be weighted by wage level: Level IV positions entered four times, Level III three times, Level II twice, and Level I once. For recent graduates typically offered entry-level wages, the math is devastating: their already slim lottery chances will at a minimum be cut in half.

 

Combined with the Department of Labor’s directive to raise prevailing wage requirements across all levels, these changes may create the perfect storm for international young professionals and the companies that hire them. To put this into perspective, an entry-level software engineer position in Silicon Valley that might have qualified in the random H-1B lottery at an annual salary of $145,000 could, if the Department of Labor succeeds in issuing a new rule, soon require an offered wage of $180,000 or more just to qualify for the lottery at the lowest chance of selection, before even considering the potential applicability of a $100,000 fee.

 

For international students completing OPT or STEM-OPT, the implications are particularly acute, and would signal that the traditional pathway of F-1 to H-1B to green card is effectively closing. O-1A, once considered a niche option for the exceptional few, has suddenly become the most viable path for a much broader swatch of skilled professionals. Unlike H-1B’s new pay-to-play model, O-1A requires proof of extraordinary ability but no lottery, no arbitrary fee, and no wage-based ranking. For those capable of meeting its high evidentiary standards, it offers what H-1B no longer can: a predictable path to working in America.

 

Emerging Trends and Unexpected Winners

New Impetus for Athletes to Pursue O-1A/P Visas

While much attention has been focused on STEM professionals and business executives, a September 2025 revision to the Foreign Affairs Manual (FAM) is likely driving another cohort toward O visas: professional athletes. 

 

The State Department’s new restrictions are tamping down athletes’ ability to use B-1 (temporary business) visas when participating in prize money competition. Under revised FAM guidance, professional athletes seeking B-1 visas must now demonstrate their “principal place of business” and salary “principally accrue abroad.” A Canadian tennis player training in Florida, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitor based in California, or a track athlete working with U.S. coaches may no longer qualify for B-1 status, even if only competing for prize money.

 

While some athletes, especially those competing in less lucrative sports, may simply cease to compete and train in the U.S., many will opt to pursue O-1 or P-1 visas that require sponsors, extensive documentation and higher costs. For athletes who can demonstrate extraordinary ability in their sport through international rankings, championship titles or other sustained acclaim, O-1 will become the natural alternative.

 

The O-1A Startup Advantage

Paradoxically, while the H-1B program’s transformation is pulling the rug out from startups and small businesses in favor of tech and industry giants, O-1A offers distinct advantages to startups. While a startup might struggle to offer the +$180,000 salary necessary to compete in the new H-1B lottery, they can offer O-1A candidates a platform for continuing to pursue work in their extraordinary achievement. Think a machine learning researcher joining a cutting-edge AI startup, a game designer launching an innovative indie studio, or a biotech scientist developing novel therapies.

 

O-1A’s flexibility particularly benefits startups in a few ways. First, there’s no lottery odds to deal with. Second, an O-1A petition can be filed year-round, allowing startups to hire when they find the right talent, rather than waiting for annual filing windows. Third, the total cost (even considering attorney fees) falls well below the $100,000 H-1B fee. Moreover, O-1A can provide an avenue for foreign national founders to pursue building the next unicorn without needing to pay themselves a six-figure salary.

 

Sectoral and Geographic Shifts

While comprehensive data on O visa distribution is limited, there are some notable patterns emerging in 2025 which we can predict will continue into 2026. The technology sector, long dominated by dependence on H-1B, is seeing a strong turn towards O-1A petitions from software engineers, data scientists and AI researchers who can demonstrate extraordinary ability through patents, publications or critical roles in significant projects.

 

Within the entertainment industry, O-1B petitions remain one of the best avenues for both film/TV industry workers as well as creatives applying under the expansive definition of the “arts” like digital creators and game designers who can demonstrate sustained acclaim through metrics like follower/engagement rates, brand partnerships and media coverage.

 

Healthcare professionals, especially those involved in research or highly specialized practice areas, are also increasingly turning to O-1A petitions as an alternative to the H-1B lottery. Their published research, clinical innovations and peer recognition often provide sufficient evidence for extraordinary ability.

 

Academic institutions, who are also facing challenges in securing H-1B visas for postdoc researchers and visiting faculty, may also be able to pivot to O-1A petitions that rely on highlighting their candidates’ scholarly achievements, citations and international recognition.

 

Geographically speaking, the wage level dependent odds of the proposed weighted H-1B lottery are also positioned to push employers to relocate foreign national workers to lower cost of living (LCOL) worksites where their budgeted wage commands a higher wage level (and thus better lottery odds), while raising salaries for non-negotiable senior level positions in high cost of living (HCOL) areas. This means we can expect to see more intensive O-1A activity among petitioners living in HCOL areas, who will feel the most significant squeeze from the H-1B reforms.

 

How to Adapt to America’s New Immigration Hierarchy

The U.S. immigration system is experiencing a fundamental reordering, not through comprehensive legislative reform but rather through an accumulation of administrative policy changes, proclamations, fee structures and adjudication trends that are collectively reshaping the way that America will attract and retain global talent. Amidst this whirlwind of change, the O visa (once seen as a niche option) is emerging as one of the most reliable pathways for exceptionally talented immigrants.

 

While it is too soon to know for certain if the drivers to O-1 will result in a major surge in applications and an adjudicatory response from USCIS, there are ways to prepare for the future. At GWL, we are working with clients to look closely at eligibility criteria and to ensure documentary recognition and accomplishments are in line with the “extraordinary ability” that the visa is intended for. With any gold rush, there are those who seek to exploit it and those who sustain it.

 

We are witnessing a number of new advisors enter the space, either entirely or substantially powered by AI-powered softwares, offering to secure O-1s for those professionals finding themselves with dwindling options. We advise caution and prudence: work with a trusted immigration attorney to navigate the murky waters ahead. While there is some uncertainty regarding the future, the current still pulls forward.